Last Document Library from motive-project.net http://www.motive-project.net Wed, 08 Feb 2012 01:19:22 +0200 WebDesign LTD. FeedCreator http://www.motive-project.net/files/DOWNLOAD/MOTIVE-Deliverable_5_1_final_2.pdf 27 January 2012

D 5.1. A review report on decision making under uncertainty and risk in forestry

MOTIVE is to provide a better understanding and modelling approach to handle the complex decision problems that climate change implies for forest owners and managers. Modelling approaches that capture the likely benefit of adaptive management strategies are required, both because of the uncertainty augmented by climate change but also because of the certainty that as time passes and climate changes new and better information becomes available. The current review (i) provides a review of state-of-the-art methods for optimal decision making under risk and uncertainty in forestry, (ii) develops further these methods for the use in AFM (cf. e.g. Jacobsen et al. 2010). The motivation of the review is the above observation that decision making under uncertainty is a large and productive cross-disciplinary research field. Finally, we conclude the deliverable with a discussion of this literature, which approaches and developments may hold most promise for the different challenges in the MOTIVE project and which parts of the research agenda will need more work by MOTIVE partners and others to secure significant advancements in the understanding of the potential for adaptive forest management and decision support tools to cope with the aspects of climate change.

]]> Fri, 27 Jan 2012 11:00:00 +0200 http://www.motive-project.net/files/DOWNLOAD/MOTIVE_Deliverable_4.1a_1.pdf 27 January 2012

D4.1a Report On Abiotic and Biotic Risks: Case Study Areas

This report first provides an overview and description of the key abiotic and biotic hazards (Figure 1) affecting European forests. We then discuss the particular hazards affecting each case study area with a description of the nature of the hazard, the impact of the hazard and how these hazards are managed. Accompanying the discussion is a table of the main hazards affecting the key tree species in each case study area, which outlines the beneficial or detrimental response of the hazard to different site and silvicultural factors, and the economic, environmental and social impacts of the hazard on the forest. In addition, there is a list of any modelling tools that are available to evaluate the risk from each hazard.

]]> Fri, 27 Jan 2012 11:00:00 +0200 http://www.motive-project.net/files/DOWNLOAD/MOTIVE_D4 3_1.pdf 27 January 2012

D4.3. Descriptions and algorithms characterizing current and possible future silvicultural treatments in the MOTIVE Case Study areas

In the MOTIVE case studies the decision space of potential management actions (required for decision making analyses in WP5) is calculated by simulating a set of alternative management schedules for a set of stands, within the framework of a set of management objectives and feasible climate scenarios. A protocol and template questionnaire (based on general knowledge on adaptive management) was provided to all case studies that allowed them to describe and select a set of alternative management schedules for each stand type in the case study. Some of the case studies that use specific simulation/decision making tools (e.g. based on stand-level simulation-optimization) or adopted a specific spatial/landscape level setup proposed alternative approaches for generating the alternative management regimes. The presented results will be used for simulating the required decision spaces by WP5 and reported to the MOTIVE database via the data client (WP6). The document provides representative information on the adaptive management regimes and approaches currently being considered in a wide range of European regions and forest types.

]]> Fri, 27 Jan 2012 11:00:00 +0200 http://www.motive-project.net/files/DOWNLOAD/MOTIVE_D24_2011_PIK-WSL_final_mittel.doc 27 January 2012

Deliverable 2.4: Report on projected species and productivity shifts



]]> Fri, 27 Jan 2012 11:00:00 +0200 http://www.motive-project.net/files/DOWNLOAD/MOTIVE_D24_2011_PIK-WSL_final_small_2.pdf 27 January 2012

D 2.4 Report on projected species and productivity shifts

We find a clear positive trend of net primary productivity (NPP) in Northern and Eastern Europe in response to 21st century climate change scenarios. In Central Europe, NPP trends diverge locally, indicating the importance of local soil and management effects upon NPP trends. In the Mediterranean regions, one model projected negative trends, while in the literature few sites with positive trends were found. Significant range shifts of trees were found, but only fast-growing, early succession tree species seem to be able to naturally track changing climates by migration.

]]> Fri, 27 Jan 2012 11:00:00 +0200 http://www.motive-project.net/files/DOWNLOAD/MOTIVE_Deliverable D2_1_version 2_2.pdf 27 January 2012

D.2.1 Drivers of changes- review of European policy documents and socio-economic trends

Multifunctional and sustainable forest management remains the central backbone of the EU policy papers. Several directions for changes are identified concerning the more intensive use of the forest resource including the following: promotion of increased use of forest biomass for energy generation, afforestation, encouraging the use of wood and other forest products, and encourage investments in forests inter alia. Therefore the continuation of the trend towards an increase in European forest area and in the volume harvested is anticipated. In the short run important changes are expected via the evolution of globalization of timber market after the crisis and depending on the Russian position regarding timber exports; the implementation of European regulation aiming at reducing the trade of illegal logging; the expected forest legally binding agreement and the expected decisions after the ministerial conference in Oslo in June 2011. The main durable change to be retained is the evolution towards open, participatory processes to define the goals of forest management and the increasing concern over biodiversity and forest certification. The place granted to present and future societal needs in the vision of multifunctional forestry challenges the top-down, regulatory style of formulating the forest management goals. Thus participation, coordination with other sectors, expression of interests (present and future societal needs) and use of communication and educational means are the main means to implement the vision of long–term, multifunctional forestry.

]]> Fri, 27 Jan 2012 11:00:00 +0200 http://www.motive-project.net/files/DOWNLOAD/MOTIVE-Deliverable_5_1_final_3.pdf 27 January 2012

D 5.1. A review report on decision making under uncertainty and risk in forestry

MOTIVE is to provide a better understanding and modelling approach to handle the complex decision problems that climate change implies for forest owners and managers. Modelling approaches that capture the likely benefit of adaptive management strategies are required, both because of the uncertainty augmented by climate change but also because of the certainty that as time passes and climate changes new and better information becomes available. The current review (i) provides a review of state-of-the-art methods for optimal decision making under risk and uncertainty in forestry, (ii) develops further these methods for the use in AFM (cf. e.g. Jacobsen et al. 2010). The motivation of the review is the above observation that decision making under uncertainty is a large and productive cross-disciplinary research field. Finally, we conclude the deliverable with a discussion of this literature, which approaches and developments may hold most promise for the different challenges in the MOTIVE project and which parts of the research agenda will need more work by MOTIVE partners and others to secure significant advancements in the understanding of the potential for adaptive forest management and decision support tools to cope with the aspects of climate change.

]]> Fri, 27 Jan 2012 11:00:00 +0200 http://www.motive-project.net/files/DOWNLOAD/MOTIVE-Deliverable_5_1_final_4.pdf 27 January 2012

D 5.1. A review report on decision making under uncertainty and risk in forestry

MOTIVE is to provide a better understanding and modelling approach to handle the complex decision problems that climate change implies for forest owners and managers. Modelling approaches that capture the likely benefit of adaptive management strategies are required, both because of the uncertainty augmented by climate change but also because of the certainty that as time passes and climate changes new and better information becomes available. The current review (i) provides a review of state-of-the-art methods for optimal decision making under risk and uncertainty in forestry, (ii) develops further these methods for the use in AFM (cf. e.g. Jacobsen et al. 2010). The motivation of the review is the above observation that decision making under uncertainty is a large and productive cross-disciplinary research field. Finally, we conclude the deliverable with a discussion of this literature, which approaches and developments may hold most promise for the different challenges in the MOTIVE project and which parts of the research agenda will need more work by MOTIVE partners and others to secure significant advancements in the understanding of the potential for adaptive forest management and decision support tools to cope with the aspects of climate change.

]]> Fri, 27 Jan 2012 11:00:00 +0200 http://www.motive-project.net/files/DOWNLOAD/MOTIVE_D65_66.pdf 26 January 2012

D6.5/D6.6 System architecture of AFM ToolBox, technical specification and prototype 1.0

The system architecture of the MOTIVE AFM ToolBox comprising of the major tool box components, their formal design and implementation as software modules is introduced. The MOTIVE AFM ToolBox is implemented as a combination of web based and native applications was chosen (hybrid approach). The tools in the ToolBox as well as the ToolBox itself are designed as web applications. This allows for tool developers a straightforward technical integration of different tools into the ToolBox, and for users a simple access to the functionalities of the ToolBox on a web server. For advanced users the local installation of the entire AFM ToolBox within its web frame is possible. Technically, the tools and the ToolBox are web applications and can be accessed and operated with a web browser. Own simulation results can be used by either uploading the data to the central MOTIVE server, or by using a local installation of the whole ToolBox. Major components of the ToolBox are the MOTIVE DataBase, the MOTIVE DataClient to transfer model otput produced externally to the ToolBox into the DataBase, the MOTIVE Vulnerability Assessment tool, the MOTIVE Optimizer and the MOTIVE Tree Species Suitability Rating tool as well as a set of support functionalities. In the Prototype 1.0 version the Tool Integration framework (i.e. the actual “tool box”), the DataClient and dataBase as well as the Vulnerability Assessment tool are implemented. An example application of the ToolBox is demonstrated with screen shots. It covers the main steps of tool selection, the production of own simulation data and the application of a tool from the ToolBox. The prototype 1.0 is accessible as demo version.

]]> Thu, 26 Jan 2012 11:00:00 +0200 http://www.motive-project.net/files/DOWNLOAD/MOTIVE_D4.4.pdf 26 January 2012

D4.4 Initial simulation results and quantified indicators of ecosystem goods and services from the case study areas

Initial simulation results of climate change impacts on key ecosystem goods and services are presented along with methodological considerations from the MOTIVE case studies. These results show that forest dynamics and ecosystem goods, services and risks are affected strongly in most case study areas, but adaptive forest management scenarios can be used to alleviate these changes considerably. The goods, services and risks are calculated according to a set of harmonized variables and units so that the resulting simulation output from each case study – i.e. the decision space for the analyses in Work Packages 5 and 6 – will allow for cross-case study comparisons regarding the effects of adaptive management.

]]> Thu, 26 Jan 2012 11:00:00 +0200 http://www.motive-project.net/files/DOWNLOAD/MOTIVE_Deliverable_ 7_1 Period_ 2.pdf 26 January 2012

D7.1 Stakeholder and Decision-Maker Interactions: 2nd periodic stakeholder report

One of the key outputs of MOTIVE will be an Adaptive Management Toolbox (AFM), which depends on the participation of multiple stakeholders. Stakeholder engagement will be particularly focussed at the case study level to encourage collaboration in the design and testing of AFM tools but also to ensure that these tools are compatible with decision-making processes in forestry sectors across Europe. This report provides background information for each of the case studies including ownership and management structures and main users/uses of the forests under study. It also includes a stakeholder analysis and engagement plan for each case study, which will be continually updated as the project progresses. The current update includes all activities until project month 30.

]]> Thu, 26 Jan 2012 11:00:00 +0200 http://www.motive-project.net/files/DOWNLOAD/MOTIVE_D4.4_1.pdf 26 January 2012

D4.4 Initial simulation results and quantified indicators of ecosystem goods and services from the case study areas

Initial simulation results of climate change impacts on key ecosystem goods and services are presented along with methodological considerations from the MOTIVE case studies. These results show that forest dynamics and ecosystem goods, services and risks are affected strongly in most case study areas, but adaptive forest management scenarios can be used to alleviate these changes considerably. The goods, services and risks are calculated according to a set of harmonized variables and units so that the resulting simulation output from each case study – i.e. the decision space for the analyses in Work Packages 5 and 6 – will allow for cross-case study comparisons regarding the effects of adaptive management.

]]> Thu, 26 Jan 2012 11:00:00 +0200 http://www.motive-project.net/files/DOWNLOAD/MOTIVE_D7_2_and_7_3_update_period2.pdf 26 January 2012

D7.2/7.3 Overall dissemination plan/Project web pages

The MOTIVE Communication Plan aims to ensure that the project creates awareness and maximises the visibility of the project, its objectives, activities and results throughout Europe. It also aims to ensure that the project identifies the relevant target audiences and addresses them with suitable methods and contents. Regarding the regional case studies, the aim is to secure a wide participation of different stakeholder groups. Since project website is one of the central channels for communication the documentation of the website development (D7.3) was combined with the presentation of the communication plan (D7.2). In the third chapter of the deliverable report the communication activities by October 2011 are presented.

]]> Thu, 26 Jan 2012 11:00:00 +0200 http://www.motive-project.net/files/DOWNLOAD/MOTIVE_D7_2_and_7_3_update_period2_1.pdf 26 January 2012

D7.5 Organisation of thematic workshops

MOTIVE organises a number of meetings, workshops and interviews to engage with stakeholders and disseminate project results. The interaction with the stakeholders happens in ten case study regions. In the beginning of the project interviews and meetings with local stakeholder groups across the case studies have focussed on introducing the project, its objectives and possible outputs. In the later stage climate change awareness, observations, expectations and adaptation among the stakeholders were found out in interaction with the stakeholders. The preliminary results of the project have been presented in meetings and workshops to the stakeholders. The reported activities were organised during May 2009-October 2011.

]]> Thu, 26 Jan 2012 11:00:00 +0200 http://www.motive-project.net/files/DOWNLOAD/MOTIVE_D74_update_period_2_with annex 1 and 3-5.pdf 26 January 2012

D7.4 Compilation of targeted dissemination materials_update after period 2

This deliverable report documents dissemination materials prepared in the MOTIVE project during the first (May 2009-May 2010) and the second reporting periods (May 2010-October 2011). The materials include general project presentations including e.g. logo, posters, factsheets, updated general presentation and more targeted dissemination products including scientific publications, a policy brief and presentations for specific end users.

]]> Thu, 26 Jan 2012 11:00:00 +0200 http://www.motive-project.net/files/DOWNLOAD/DeStAB 2nd meeting_notes_final_draft.docx 16 December 2011

Minutes



]]> Fri, 16 Dec 2011 11:00:00 +0200 http://www.motive-project.net/files/DOWNLOAD/MOTIVE_Progress Report_WP7_final_1.doc 12 December 2011

MOTIVE WP7 Progress report final

progress report for period 2

]]> Mon, 12 Dec 2011 11:00:00 +0200 http://www.motive-project.net/files/DOWNLOAD/MOTIVE_hanewinkel_Baden_Baden_2011_11_30.pptx 12 December 2011

Hanewinkel_Introduction to the MOTIVE mid-term results



]]> Mon, 12 Dec 2011 11:00:00 +0200 http://www.motive-project.net/files/DOWNLOAD/Blennow_DeStab_BadenBaden111130.ppt 12 December 2011

Blennow_Stakeholder survey



]]> Mon, 12 Dec 2011 11:00:00 +0200 http://www.motive-project.net/files/DOWNLOAD/Marzano_Baden-Baden-301111.ppt 12 December 2011

Marzano_Stakeholder interactions



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